Ukraine Real Estate Market in February 2026: Diagnosis and Near-Term Forecast

Ukraine Real Estate Market 2026: Analytical Overview and Forecast

January 27, 2026 16 Views

We are in February 2026. The hybrid reality in which the Ukrainian economy exists has finally taken on clearer contours for the real estate market. Forecasts from 2024 about a "turning point in 2025" have partially come true. The market is now not at the start of recovery, but in its first active phase, characterized not by uniform growth but by deep and possibly permanent segmentation.

1. What Has Really Changed Since 2025? Results of the "Transitional" Period

Mortgages: Launched, But Not Taken Off. The NBU key rate has indeed decreased, and banks are offering mortgage products. However, interest rates remain high (14-18% per annum in UAH), and borrower requirements are strict. Mortgages have become a tool for the affluent middle class, but not for the masses. Their share in primary market transactions in Kyiv and Lviv is about 25-30%.

Development: Quality as a Trump Card. The forecast of a shift in focus to quality of life has fully materialized. New best-selling projects are residential complexes with mandatory underground or built-in shelters of Comfort+ level, their own power generation, and enclosed courtyards. The price per m² in such projects is 30-40% higher than in pre-war buildings.

Geography: The Gap Has Widened. The difference between the markets of Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa regions and the rest of the country has become a chasm. In safe agglomerations, there is active construction. In regions closer to the front, the market is frozen, with transactions only on the secondary market.

Commercial Real Estate: Logistics Rules. Warehouse and logistics hubs near Kyiv and Lviv are the hottest segment. The office market is reviving in spots: demand for small, modern, and secure spaces from IT companies and international representatives.

2. February 2026: Key Trends and "Pain Points"

Dominance of Cash Payments: Over 70% of transactions are cash. The buyer is either a family that saved money during the war years or a member of the diaspora.
Diaspora Activation: Remote transaction channels have been refined. The diaspora is not only a buyer but also an investor in construction through crowdfunding schemes.
Rising Construction Costs: The main "headache" for developers. Prices for metal, power generation equipment, and secure windows are rising.
Land Issue Intensifies: In safe regions, prices for building plots have increased 2-3 times since 2023. A shortage of "clean" land hinders new project launches.

3. Forecast for the Rest of 2026: Cautious Optimism

The year's baseline dynamics will depend on two factors: the military situation and rear security and access to international funding (EU Ukraine Facility programs, World Bank projects).

Expected Trends Through End of 2026:

Developer Consolidation: Only large players with access to finance and small niche firms will remain in the market.
Increased Demand for "Ready" Housing: In conditions of uncertainty, a premium will grow for housing in completed buildings with proven safety infrastructure.
Awakening of the Redevelopment Market: A wave of reconstruction of old housing stock in city centers will begin, upgrading it to new safety standards.

The Ukrainian real estate market in early 2026 is a mature but traumatized player. It has learned to operate under conditions of permanent risk, formed new value criteria (safety, autonomy, quality), and found new clients. The main challenge of the year is to translate the launched mortgage and expected international funds into specific, quickly implemented projects.